HUMANOID ROBOTS DOING PRODUCTIVE JOBS
Current
~0
Goal
100k
Progress
4%
Figure, Agility, UBTECH — factory & logistics trials, not mass deployment
Roughly on paceEOY 2026 Counter
Updated Jun 21, 2026
EOY 2026
PREDICTION COUNTER
Tracking David Patterson's forecast until December 31, 2026
193Days
12Hrs
05Min
38Sec
194 days until verdict
Current verdict
Early days
Baseline set. Too soon to call it, but 100k×2 is a steep climb from ~4k.
13.5%avg progress
Tracking window elapsed0.3%
Since 2026-06-21 → 2026-12-31
ROBOTAXIS IN COMMERCIAL SERVICE
Current
~0
Goal
100k
Progress
4%
Waymo-led in a handful of US metros; China expanding faster
Roughly on paceAI JOB REPLACEMENT FULL ROLES AT SCALE
Maturity
0%
Task-level automation widespread; full-role replacement still rare
Roughly on paceAI RESEARCH MEDICAL & SCIENTIFIC
Maturity
0%
Copilots everywhere; few autonomous discoveries or clinical wins yet
Ahead of paceThe prediction
By Dec 31, 2026 — per @davidpattersonx
- >100,000 humanoid robots doing jobs
- >100,000 autonomous taxis on roads
- AI that replaces full jobs
- AI that does medical & scientific research
Published updates
- Baseline
Counter launched. ~4k humanoids, ~4k robotaxis, AI jobs early stage, research accelerating.
View on X →
Upcoming check-ins
- Next
Update #1
Prep Jul 12, 2026 · Post 14–16 Jul
- pending
Update #2
Prep Aug 28, 2026 · Post 30 Aug – 1 Sep
- pending
Update #3
Prep Oct 12, 2026 · Post 14–16 Oct
- pending
Update #4
Prep Nov 28, 2026 · Post 1–7 Dec
- pending
Update #5
Prep Dec 27, 2026 · Post 28–31 Dec
Watching for
Humanoids
- Tesla Optimus
- Figure
- 1X
- Boston Dynamics
- Major Chinese orders
Robotaxis
- Waymo expansion
- Zoox
- Cruise
- Tesla robotaxi
AI Jobs
- Full-role replacement at scale
- Not demos or pilots
AI Research
- Autonomous discoveries
- Clinical breakthroughs